Accord agricole et redistribution des revenus en milieu rural au Sénégal : essai de simulation à l'aide d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable
Keywords:
Commerce agricole, agriculture, redistribution du revenu, politique agricole, revenu agricole, commerce exterieur, libéralisation des échanges, macroéconomie, pauvreté, comptabilité sociale, structure économique, SénégalSynopsis
Agriculture in Senegal represents the main activity for an important proportion of the population. Moreover, the majority of poor households live in rural area. In this paper, a simulation of the impact of the WTO Agricultural _Agreement on poverty and income distribution in rural area in Senegal is performed, based on a general equilibrium framework. This shock will induce an important tariff disrnantling in the agricultura'I sector and will have effects on the household budget on the income side as well as on the price side. The mode! that we suggest includes 18 sectors and four factors : capital, labour, land and water. In agriculture, we distinguish two sub-sectors: the set of the irrigated sectors and that of the 11011-irrigated sectors. An export demand fonction unable us take into account constraints facing local producers on international markets. The desintegration of rural househ~lds makes it possible to observe effects of agricultural liberalization on each category according to its agro-ecological area. lt appears from the simulations carried out that the tariff dismantling induced by the agricultural Agreement will more benefit to the urban households in Senegal. lmplernentation of support policies such as increasing land endowment and ,the supply of water for irrigation will result in pove11Y reduction. In this latter case, the effects on poverty reduction are more important on the Niayes area households since the share of imported goods is more significant in their consumption basket than in any other rural group. The elimination of agricultural subsidies in developed countries will result in the reduction of poverty in rural areas. This, however, will induce an increase in the cosfof imported cereals, in particular rice. and then, will have an adverse effect on poverty alleviation. Consequently, this shock will have a far reaching implication for the evolution of poverty in a developing country like Senegal.
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