Post-Referendum Sudan: National and Regional Questions

Authors

Samson Samuel Wassara
Al-Tayib Zain al-Abdin
Andrew Ssemwanga
Benaiah Yongo-Bure
B.F. Bankie
Christopher Zambakari
Hamed Omer Hawi
Kassahun Berhanu
Mahmood Mamdani
Peter Adwok Nyaba
Publication System
DOI: https://doi.org/10.57054/codesria.pub.70

Synopsis

CODESRIA, 2014, 232 p., ISBN : 978-2-86978-588-5

The fate of Sudan, by then the largest country in Africa, was clearly decided when results of the referendum vote were announced in February 2011. Policy makers, scholars and the international community began to grapple with critical issues that might arise after the independence of South Sudan and how different stakeholders were likely to react during the period of uncertainty.
Political developments in Sudan were long-term outcomes of post-cold war revolutions in the world system after the Soviet Union collapsed. A domino effect of such events swept across Eastern Europe with some manifestations in the Horn of Africa. The fall of Mengistu Haile Mariam, marked the beginning of the redrawing of the map of Africa and posed a challenge to the long held principle of preservation of colonial borders that had been enshrined in the Charter of the Organisation of African Unity. The precedent set by the independence of Eritrea seemed to encourage southern Sudan to press forward for independence through a two pronged approach of armed struggle and diplomacy led by the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement.

This book attempts to understand national, regional and continental dimensions of the unresolved issues that could result in the escalation of conflict in the Sudan. It examines internal dynamics of the Sudan after secession of the south and how these dynamics might affect neighbouring countries in the geopolitical regions: the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes Region and Central Africa. A section of the book is dedicated to dynamics within South Sudan as a new state. Post-conflict South Sudan as country was marked by extreme poverty, lack of infrastructure and prevalence of inter-communal armed violence. This book proposes possible policies to prevent the country from descending into a state of economic and social chaos.
The book provides the argument that equitable and rational transformative socio-economic programmes and policies could greatly reduce potentials for conflict. This book calls on policy makers to pursue policies that could lead to concrete projects planned to alleviate poverty and provision of basic social services such as education, health, and safe water. The book comes to the conclusion that political stability will depend on collective actions of stakeholders to ensure that peace prevails both in the north and the south to guarantee human security in the region.

Chapters

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Samson Samuel Wassara

is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Juba. He obtained his PhD from the University of Paris XI (Paris-Sud). Dr Wassara has held various academic positions at the University of Juba and was twice Dean, College of Social and Economic Studies. He was UNICEF’s Sudan national project manager of peace building in the section of Rights, Protection and Peace Building (RPPB) during the period 2000-2006. He teaches political science, international relations and peace. His research interests include security sector, peace studies, geopolitics and hydro-politics. Dr Wassara’s most recent publications are, ‘The CPA and Beyond: Problems and Prospects for Peaceful Coexistence in the Nuba Mountains’, in Elke Grawert, ed., 2010, After the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Sudan, Woodbridge: James Currey/Boydell & Brewer Ltd; and ‘Rebels, Militias and Governance in Sudan’, in Wafula Okumu and Augustine Ikelegbe, eds, 2010, Militias, Rebels and Islamist Militants: Human Insecurity and State Crises in Africa. Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies.

Al-Tayib Zain al-Abdin

has been Professor of Politics at the University of Khartoum since 1997. He obtained his PhD from Cambridge University in 1975. Professor Al-Tayib has worked as Advisor to the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Khartoum (2007-2011). He is former Secretary General of the Sudan Inter-Religious Council (2003-2007). Professor Al-Tayib taught at the Institute of African and Asian Studies, the University of Khartoum; International Islamic University in Islamabad (1991-1996, 1999-2003); Centre for the Study of Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations, Birmingham; and at the Imam Muhammad bin Saud University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He also served as the Director of Islamic African Centre, Khartoum (1980-85). He is a regular writer in Sudanese newspapers and has been active in North-South cooperation societies before and after the referendum.

Andrew Ssemwanga

Kigali Independent University, Kigali, Rwanda.

Benaiah Yongo-Bure

Katerring University, Flint, Michigan, USA.

B.F. Bankie

National Youth Council of Namibia, Secretary and member, International Sub-Committee, Windhoek, Namibia.

Christopher Zambakari

Scholar, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Hamed Omer Hawi

University of Juba, Khartoum, at the time of writing the paper; but currently in Bahri University after independence of South Sudan, Khartoum, Sudan.

Kassahun Berhanu

Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia

Mahmood Mamdani

Makerere Institute of Social Research (MISR), Makerere University Kampala, Uganda.

Peter Adwok Nyaba

Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Khartoum, Sudan at he time of writing the papers; but currently Minister of Higher Education, Research, Science and Technology, South Sudan, Juba.

References

Ajayi S.I., 1974, ‘An Econometric Case Study of the Relative Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Nigeria’, The Bangladesh Economic Review, Vol. 2, No. 2, 559- 576.

Ajsafe and Folorunso, 2002, ‘The Relative Effectiveness of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Macroeconomic Management in Nigeria’, The African Economic and Business Review, Vol. 3, No. 1, Spring.

Andersen and Jordan, 1986, ‘Monetary and Fiscal Actions: A Test of Their Relative Importance in Economic Stabilization’,Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 80, 29-45.

Athorbei, David Deng, 2011, ‘Government of Southern Sudan, 2011 Budget Speech’, presented to the South Sudan Legislative Assembly by H.E. David Deng Athorbei, January 2011, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, Government of Southern Sudan, Juba.

Batten, D. S. and Rafer, R. W., 1983, ‘The Relative Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Actions on Economic Activity: A Cross-Country Comparison’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 65, 5-12.

BBC, 2012, ‘Agrees US$ 8 billion with China’,BBC News Africa, 28 April 2012, Retrieved on June 18, 2012 from http://www.bbc.co.uk

Bofinger and Wollmershäuser, 2003, ‘Managed Floating: Theory, Practice and ERM II’, Paper prepared for the CEPR/Deutsche Bank Research Workshop ‘Managed Floating An Alternative to the Two Corner Solutions?’ in Kronberg/Germany, 30/31 January 2003.

Bleany, M. and Fielding, D., 2002, Exchange Rate Regimes, Inflation and Output Volatility in Developing Countries’, Journal of Development Economics 68 (1), 233-45.

Central banking Newsdesk, 2012, ‘South Sudan enacts central bank law’, Retrieved on May 23 from http://www.centralbanking.com/central-banking/news/2094427/south-sudan-enacts-central-bank-law

Chowdhury, A. R., 1986, ‘Monetary and Fiscal Impacts on Economic Activities in Bangladesh A Note’, The Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol. XIV, No. 2,101-106.

Devereux, M. B., 1998 and 1999, ‘Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange Rate Regime’, NBER Working Paper No. 6867, December 1998, and ‘The Optimal Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Price- Setting Rules and Internationalized Production’, NBER Working Paper No. 6992, March 1999.

Dornbusch, R., 2001, ‘Fewer Monies, Better Monies’,NBER Working Paper 8324. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Edwards S., 1996, “The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes,” NBER Working Paper No. 5756, September 1996.

Edwards, S., 2001, ‘Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention’, NBER Working Paper 8529. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Eliot, J.W., 1975, ‘The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Actions on Total Spending: The St. Louis Total Spending Equation Revisited’, Journal of Money Credit and Banking. Vol. 7, 181-192.

Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W .J., 1987, Co-integration.

El-Sadany, M. and Ottaway, M., 2012, ‘Sudan: From Conflict to Conflict’, Carnegie Paper, May 2012, Retrieved June 18, 2012 from http://carnegieendowment.org

Frankel, J. A., 1999, ‘No Single Currency Regime is Right for all Countries or at all Times’, Princeton Essays in International Finance No. 215,Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Ferrie, J., 2012, ‘South Sudan hunts for Loans as Oil-Output Halt Dents Economy’, Retrieved on June 10, 2012 from Bloomberg Business Week, 11 May 2012, http://www.businessweek.com

Ghosh, A., 1996, ‘Does Nominal Exchange rate Regime Matter?’ NEBER Working Paper 5874.

Goitom, H., 2011, ‘South Sudan and The Law Library’, Retrieved on 10 June 2012, from http://blogs.loc.gov/law/2011/07/south-sudan-and-the-law-library/

Goodfriend, 2004, ‘Understanding the Transmission of Monetary Policy’, manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Presented at Joint China-IMF High Level Seminar on ‘China’s Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism’, Beijing, May.

Guardian, 2012, ‘Southern Sudan development hindered by World Bank’, Retrieved on 17 April 2012 from http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/18/southern-sudan-development-world-bank

Harrigan, J., 2006, ‘Time to Exchange the Exchange Rate Regime: Are Hard Pegs the Best Options for Low-income’,Development Policy Review24 (2), 205-223

Husain et al. 2005, ‘Exchange Rate Regime Durability and Performance in Developing Versus Advanced Economies’,Journal of Monetary Economics52(25), 35-64.

Kalyalya, D., 2010, ‘Monetary policy in Zambia: experiences and challenges’, Chapter 17 in Gill Hammond, Ravi Kanbur and Eswar Prasad, eds,Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd

Kameir, E.W., 2011, ‘The Political Economy of South Sudan: A Scoping Analytical Study’, Retrieved May 23, 2012 from http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Project-and-Operations/2011%20Political_Economy_South_Sudan_-

_24_October_20111.pdf

Kasekende, L. and Brownbridge, 2010, ‘Post-crisis Monetary Policy Frameworks in Sub-Saharan Africa’, Research paper, October 2010, African Development Bank publication, Tunis, Tunisia.

Mendoza, E. G. and Uribe,M., 1999, ‘The Business Cycles of Balance-of-Payment Crises: A Revision of Mundellian Framework’, NBER Working Paper No. 7045, March.

Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, 2011, ‘Guidelines for Draft Budget Sector Plans 2011 -2015’, Ministry of Finance and Planning, Republic of South Sudan, 23 November.

Mpyisi, K. and Okello, D., 2012, ‘The Cost of Future Conflict in Sudan’, Frontier Economics, 2010, Retrieved on 18 June 2012 from http://www.frontier-economics.com

Mundell, R.A., 1961, ‘A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas’,American Economic Review, November.

Mussa, Michael, 2007, ‘IMF Surveillance over China’s Exchange Rate Policy’, Washington, DC:Peterson Institute for International Economics.

National Bureau of Statistics, Republic of South Sudan, 2010, ‘Fast Facts’, Retrieved on 15 May 2012 from http://ssnbs.org/

National Bureau of Statistics, Republic of South Sudan,2010, “Consumer Price Index for South Sudan, May 2012’, Retrieved on June 13, 2012 from http://ssnbs.org/cpi/2012/6/1/consumer-price-index-for-south-sudan-may-2012.html

New Times of Rwanda 2012, ‘UN agency seeks funds for ‘critical’ refugee situation in South Sudan’, Retrieved on June 24, 2012 from http://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/index.php?i=15033&a=12307

Ngai, K.M., 2012, ‘2011/2012 Budget Speech to National Legislative Assembly, presented by Hon. Kosti Manibe Ngai, Minister of Finance & Economic Planning March 2012’, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, Government of Southern Sudan, Juba.

Olaloye, A. O. and Ikhide, S. I., 1995, ‘Economic Sustainability and the Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in A Depressed Economy: The Case Study of Nigeria’, Sustainable Development, Vol. 3, 89-100.

Poole, W., 1970, ‘Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, Vol. 84(2), . 197-216, May.

RT, 2012, ‘Chinese Money to “Settle” Sudanese Oil Divorce? RT, 23 April 2012’, Retrieved on June 15, 2012 from http://www.rt.com

Simwaka, Kisu, 2010, ‘Choice of exchange rate regimes for African countries: Fixed or Flexible Exchange rate regimes?’,Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 15 March.

South Sudan Information. Com, 2012, ‘Economy of South Sudan’, Retrieved on 13 May 2012 from http://www.southsudaninfo.com/Economy_of_South_Sudan

South Sudan Bureau of Standards, Southern Sudan, 2010, ‘Release of first Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI) figures for South Sudan by the NBS’, Retrieved on May 23, 2012 from http://ssnbs.org/storage/GDP%20Press%20release_11.08.11.pdf

South Sudan Bureau of Standards, Southern Sudan, 2010, ‘Key indicators’, Retrieved on June 11, 2012 from http://ssnbs.org/storage/key-indicators-for-southern-sudan/Key%20Indicators_A5_final.pdf

Sudan Tribune, 2012, ‘Sudan Asks China for Help in Resolving Oil Dispute with South Sudan’, 28 February 2012, Retrieved on 18 June, 2012 from http://www.sudantribune.com

Sudan Tribune, 2012, ‘Exclusive – South Sudan Economy on the Verge of Collapse, World Bank Warns’, 6 May, Retrieved on June 18, 2012 from http://www.sudantribune.com

Tutor2u, 2012, ‘Fixed and floating exchange rates’, Retrieved on 11 May 2012 from http://tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/exchangerates/fixed_floating.htm

The New Sudan Vision, 2011, ‘Investor info Southern Sudan: Where forth with the new currency? ‘ Issue#1, Retrieved on 9 May 2012 from http://www.newsudanvision.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2339:investor-info-southern-sudan-where-forth-with-the-new-currency-i&catid=5:columns&Itemid=14

Vencatachellum, 2007, ‘The Impact of High Oil Prices on African Economies’, Economic Research Working Paper No 93 (December 2007), Development Research Department African Development Bank, Tunis Belvedere, Tunisia.

Williamson, John, 1998, ‘Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility’,International Finance. Blackwell Publishing, Vol. 1(1), 59-79.

Woolf, N., 2012, ‘South Sudan Refuses to be Held Ransom by the North’,The Guardian, 17 May, Retrieved on 18 June 2012 from http://www.guardian.co.uk

Downloads

Full Book

Published

June 18, 2014

Series

CODESRIA Books
Copyright (c) 2014 CODESRIA Books Publication System

Details about the available publication format: Full Book

Full Book

Physical Dimensions